Recent Frigid temperatures and Falling Demand for Electricity in Alberta
January 22nd, 2020 4:23 am | by John MacCormack Ph.D. P.Eng. | Posted in Uncategorized
Over the last week all of Alberta was in the deep freeze. The Globe and Mail reported the penguins at the Calgary Zoo weren’t allowed outside.[1] All offered electricity supplies were utilized and in a few hours Alberta declared Energy Emergencies and began drawing down operating reserves. Prices spiked to $999.99/ MWh in a few hours [2] and the trailing 30 day average electricity price roughly tripled to more than $125/MWh .[3] Saskatchewan experiencing the same cold snap was unable to export any energy to Alberta in some hours.[4] The AESO reported a new peak load of 11,698 MW.[5] Solar generation (even during the day) was zero for many hours. With little or no wind the wind generation dropped to very low levels. In short it seems the Alberta system was operating near capacity in the last week.
Electricity Price and Solar Generation over the last week
Electricity Price and Wind Generation over the last week
The astonishing thing about this is that this all happened against a backdrop of DECLINING electrical energy use in Alberta. The 11,698 MW peak was only 1 MW higher than the previous peak demand set almost TWO years ago!! Total electrical energy consumption in 2019 was almost 0.5% LOWER than in 2018. The peak demand in 2019 at 11,471 MW was approximately 2% lower than the 11,697 MW peak demand set in 2018. Declining electrical energy use is uncommon. Alberta has not experienced declining electrical load since 2016. In 2018 the electrical energy load in Alberta was 3.3% higher than 2017 which in turn was 4.1% higher than the load in 2016.[6][7]
Over 50% of Alberta’s electrical load is industrial load. When the electrical load is decreasing it is an ominous sign that overall economic activity was likely stagnant or also falling.
Declining electrical load can happen transiently but is not anticipated over the longer term. Had load grown at normal rates Alberta’s shortfall in available energy over the last week would most certainly been worse.
[1] Globe and Mail Thursday, January 16, 2020 Even Calgary’s penguins can’t cope with deep freeze in West.
[2] AESO website Current and Historical Market Reports – Pool Price
[3] http://ets.aeso.ca/ets_web/ip/Market/Reports/DailyAveragePoolPriceReportServlet
[4] Globe and Mail Thursday, January 16, 2020 Even Calgary’s penguins can’t cope with deep freeze in West.
[5] http://ets.aeso.ca/ets_web/ip/Market/Reports/MonthlyPeakLoadForecastReportServlet?contentType=html
[6] https://www.aeso.ca/market/market-and-system-reporting/annual-market-statistic-reports/
[7] AESO website Current and Historical Market Reports – Pool Price
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